Strategies for surviving a black swan event, according to a project manager

The ultimate definition of a black swan event

The COVID-19 pandemic may become one of the greatest black swan events in history. So what is a black swan, exactly? According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb who popularized the term, it’s an extremely rare occurrence with cataclysmic consequences. Because they’re so rare, black swans are impossible to predict and the only way to prepare for them is by building structurally sound systems — in governments, in the economy, at work and at home. Because of their improbability, black swans have a knack for exposing flaws in established systems, which is what we’re seeing now with the coronavirus.

You never expected to be trapped in your house for weeks at a time. Because we never thought something like this would happen, we didn’t plan for it and now people are scrambling at the last minute to stock up on medicine, food and supplies. Even the CDC wasn’t designed to handle something to this scale. We’re in uncharted territory — so what the heck do we do?

What project management teaches us about black swan events

As a project manager, you would never plan for black swans. Responding quickly and calmly can ensure that you minimize impact, however, and consequence mapping is a great way to do that.

In the case of COVID-19, mapping out consequences that could occur can save you a lot of worry and reduce damage. 

Let’s say you’re forced to go on lockdown for a month to help contain the spread of the virus. What would you need to get through that situation? What are the possible consequences of everyone being stuck in their house? Map those out and divide them into: funding, health, food/water, sanitary and shelter. Then label each consequence as a high, medium or low risk. 

If you have asthma, for example, a high risk would be not having an inhaler in the event everything is shut down. You need your inhaler to survive. So the next step would be to ask yourself how to turn that high risk consequence into a low risk. 

An easy solve would be to fill an extra prescription as a backup. For a small fee, you can take a corrective action that better prepares you in the event you’re without access to a pharmacy. 

A medium risk consequence could be your child's education. If the economy shuts down for months at a time, what are the consequences of your children not physically attending their school? Could they fall behind in their grade level? Do you become their at home teacher?

A simple solution would be to have your kids continue education with online classes. Another option could be that you hire a tutor or let your children learn through experiences instead of focusing on the rigid structures of academia.

Another thing to note when consequence mapping is to include others in on the brainstorming session. Your family, friends and co-workers (if this is a work situation) will challenge you to come up with new scenarios and poke holes in your reasoning, much like a peer-reviewed paper. On your own, you may have a blind spot, or many blind spots. Diversity of perspective is vital to painting a clear picture of what to expect.

Why consequence mapping works

Consequence mapping gives you confidence in an unknown future. By running through worst case scenario situations in your head before they happen, your anxiety is reduced and you feel much more in control. You’re also able to make decisions from a more rational and emotionally sound place. 

Take learning to fly a helicopter, for example. Helicopter Underwater Escape Training or HUET teaches you what to do in the event your helicopter crashes into the water, a pretty unlikely occurrence. But by having practiced this scenario before the event ever occurs in real life, you’re prepared to handle it — just in case it does. Could you imagine never having this training and then crashing into the water? It’s unlikely that you’d survive. 

While you can’t predict the future, you can at least understand all the levers that govern and impact your life and plan for it. Rather than just letting things happen to you (like the COVID-19 pandemic), the power is now back in your hands to take corrective action.